Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Xi's authoritarianism was entirely predictable from his "China dream"

The Economist ran a cover story about Xi's cult of personality, betraying the deepening Western concern over the decidedly un-Western (even anti-Western) direction that China is taking under its new strongman.

It's not that Xi's about to establish a neo-Maoist totalitarian dictatorship - The Economist simultaneously ran another article which assesses his limits - but the unspoken subtext of all the worry is that he's taking China off the free market-based path of development and prosperity at just the moment when the world at large can ill afford such a retrenchment. For one, global stock markets are now more exposed than ever to the Chinese slowdown and need persistent confidence-building communication from Beijing's communist policymakers; even a hint of throwback to the voodoo ideology-driven management of Mao in this context is intolerable.

But Xi's authoritarianism was entirely predictable from his own vision for China - the "China dream" - which he formulated upon taking power in late 2012. That's because the "China dream" is the aspiration of the Chinese state and empire, not of its individual people - who are all but assumed to yearn for nothing other than a share of such resurgent civilizational greatness.

It should be clear by now that when he earlier spoke of "rule of law" and of giving markets a "decisive role" in the economy, Xi never meant to say that these are worthy end goals in and of themselves - they're merely potential tools to achieve more optimal governance by the all-powerful party-state. As such, these reforms have been applied piecemeal at best if not shelved altogether - they're simply not what the party-state really needs now, in Xi's view.

And given that the "China dream" envisions a future in which the party is still glorified over the state and the state is still glorified over society, it's also probable that the kind of "democratic" China Xi wants in 2049 looks far more like Putin's Russia, Erdogan's Turkey, or (quite a stretch) Orban's Hungary - that is, effective majoritarian tyrannies - than the US or UK.

The trouble is, Xi's apparently betting that much of the Chinese population does in fact share his populist, "historical inevitability" view of the long-term resurgence of the Chinese empire, summed up nicely in this comment to the aforementioned Economist cover story (probably posted via a Great Firewall-evading VPN):
First, as a normal Chinese citizen, this report gave me a new perspective of Xi, thank you.
Second, as a normal Chinese citizen, I think I'm in the center of the storm, I would like to share some of my perspectives to you.
# As we all know Xi's cult of power, now he is the most powerful president since Mao,but I think special time need special leader, the era of President Hu almost reach the edge of collapse since premier Wen is the real controller and under his control the country is full of corruption and the economy is full of bubble,so when President Xi get on the stage, the best way to lead the country to a healthy path is to get control of the country first, then lead the country to find the healthy path.
# Under this special economy background, China need to have patient to find the right path. If let the economy bubble keep growing would be a huge risk in the future, but if you stop the bubble growing the economy of China may face economy collapse of the whole country, only God know the right path without even trying, I believe President Xi is not God, he need time and he need to make some mistakes to find the path.
# When you want to know a people, you need to listen what he said, but you need to pay more attention on what he did. After three years and Half, even though China still have a lot problems, even though still a lot citizens are angering about the country, but I have to see that as a 27 years old young man, I have more hope than before, I can feel our government is trying to improve the govern system, and I believe President Xi would not only be the person to the cult of power, but also a person to the cult of creating history.

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