Monday, April 4, 2016

Corruption linked to Xi Jinping: what actually matters?

Even if the content in the Panama Papers which is specifically linked to Xi Jinping (among other top Chinese leaders) were freely discussable within China, what would actually matter?

For starters, Xi's brother-in-law in question was already known to be fabulously wealthy, and his newly disclosed offshore shell companies would have been a run-of-the-mill shenanigan for such a well-connected individual. Since Xi apparently had the political acumen to ensure they ceased operation as he rose to power in 2012, there's little actual new or current substance which could be posed as a "smoking gun" against the integrity of his present administration.

However, for a powerful leader who has cultivated a populist image as a big graft-buster, it inevitably fuels suspicions that party discipline is anything but impartial or apolitical. It opens up a debate that neither Xi nor the party wants China to have out in the open.

In the end, though, this is all inconsequential. Whether it's China or the US (or anywhere), corruption per se isn't the real issue; neither even is the lack or weakness of checks on it. Rather, the fundamental problem is that all economic development tends to produce a small minority of short-term winners versus a large majority of short-term losers in relative terms, even if it more rarely does so in absolute terms. A corrupt elite which habitually gets away with tremendous malfeasance during booms will quickly find that it can't get away even with much smaller misdeeds during busts. Of course, owing to the lack of electoral and independent civic mechanisms, the stakes are always higher for authoritarian systems.

It matters far less, then, that Xi's relatives and close associates have probably gotten away with effective murder (in financial terms) in the past without having to answer for it; what makes or breaks the regime today is if and to what extent even they are restricted now compared to the earlier go-go years (i.e. the height of the post-crisis stimulus era, 2009-12, the period in which Xi's brother-in-law's aforementioned shell companies were active).

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