Xi Jinping vs. Li Keqiang: the Emperor and his Master Wonk

The Economist reiterates the now popular assertion that Premier Li Keqiang is the weakest Chinese Premier in decades. Notably:

Mr Li’s problem, however, is not so much incompetence as impotence. He is officially ranked second in the party hierarchy, but it is ever more apparent that Mr Xi largely excludes him from day-to-day decision-making on economic policy. That is a striking change of fortune for a man once thought to be a possible candidate for the role that was eventually filled by Mr Xi, who took over as China’s leader in 2012.

On the other hand, Mr. Li continues in his role as overseer of such crucial strategic initiatives as the overhaul of the Chinese financial sector.

Of course, if you're a liberal (whether Western or Chinese), then along with the authors of the Economist, it's probably a big letdown that Li has been marginalized. As a realist, though, I'm more willing to accept the obvious: unless China democratizes right now, its only alternative path of development at this juncture inevitably requires Xi the strongman to take economic authority away from Li the thoughtful technocrat.

The Economist piece, even though it concludes that Xi Jinping has consciously determined that his own strong personal leadership is China's best hope to push through difficult reforms - i.e. that usurping much of the prime minister's authority is unavoidable - nonetheless still demonstrates the liberal tendency to understate the degree to which China's economic reforms are really part and parcel of, and subsidiary to, Xi's larger mission to overhaul the CPC as an effective ruling party.

So yes, the Economist is right to point out that Xi really has a very full plate now - having to keep an eye on the economy even as his signature anti-corruption campaign continues - but even if things like the summer stock market bailout weren't directly related to the anti-graft crusade, in the end they're not at all separate concerns for Xi.

So in other words, Li is really just the Emperor's Master Wonk adviser in the current period of systemic crisis management. His consultation and expertise are needed all the time, not least to render accurate situation reports to the throne room and to ensure that the Emperor's edicts don't inadvertently screw up the public welfare; at this stage in the game, though, he's just not the guy who'll be making actual decisions.