Militarization of the South China Sea just got a big boost

At least one source is saying that the destroyer USS Lansen was shadowed by two similar Chinese warships during its just-concluded "freedom of navigation" exercise around the Chinese-held Spratlys in the South China Sea.

If so, this would represent a potentially major escalation of the militarization of some of the world's most crucial waters. Unfortunately, neither Washington, which has promised to make these FON exercises a regular event, nor Beijing, which has staked much domestic credibility on its nationalistic claims to the South China Sea, would appear to have much room for compromise.

By sending two missile destroyers, including one of its most modern "Type 052C" boats, to pursue the USS Lansen, the PLA Navy effectively said: "Just one destroyer doesn't intimidate us...we are a Great Power, and if you want to make an impression, you should be prepared to deploy great force at great risk and cost, but even then, don't expect any free lunches here in our local pond."

Alas, nobody can seriously have expected America to stand idly by, at least not indefinitely, while China pretty much made a mockery of its credibility as enforcer of fairness on the high seas; but now that a challenge has been made - and apparently met in kind - it could be the start of a slippery slope.

At the very least, Pentagon planners should be carefully considering the nature, scale, and persistence of the exercises it must execute to change Chinese calculations in America's favor; the worst Washington can do now is unwittingly accelerate the PLA's militarization of the Spratlys by posing enough of a threat to give Beijing the pretext, but not enough to actually push back.

In the overall context of US-China relations, this is the most visible and potentially most dramatic test of strength...it could set the tone for every other aspect of the bilateral relationship, and along with it, the larger arena of Sino-US strategic competition in not only the Asia-Pacific, but increasingly worldwide.

Will the US Navy be compelled to beef up its forces and exercises in the South China Sea? How will the PLA Navy respond? Will it reach the point where Washington must go well beyond regular navigational freedom postures and dispatch a full carrier strike group, prompting Beijing to seal off the Spratlys zone for anti-ship missile tests? A scary thought...but strategists on both sides of the Pacific had better be drawing up their South China Sea endgames right about now.