Friday, November 6, 2015

Shocking contraction of rail freight: sign of much slower growth than reported, or amazing evidence of rebalancing?

An article points out the following shocking 15 percent decline in Chinese freight rail traffic in 2015 (red line):


Is this an indication of much lower GDP growth than the officially reported 6.9 percent for 3Q (and around 7 percent YTD), or of the amazing speed of rebalancing towards consumption and services? Most likely a combination of both: in China especially, such diametrically opposing phenomenon and trends seem to be the norm.

Meanwhile, the latest stronger-than-expected US jobs report has made a Fed rate hike in December probable, but uncertainties remain largely because of persistent soft inflation and inflation expectations.

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